Don't underestimate the fertilizer problem, food supply crisis may occur in 2023
The Indonesian G20 summit officially opened on Tuesday. As the host, Indonesian Prime Minister Joko Widodo started with the food issue and clarified the crisis that the world should respond to in 2023.
Don't underestimate the fertilizer problem, he said, and 2023 will be even more bleak if immediate steps are not taken to ensure there is a supply of fertilizer at the right price in the market. The current high food prices will further worsen into a food supply crisis, and fertilizer shortages will lead to crop failures around the world.
In addition, he called on the leaders of the country's rich countries to unite on economic issues and help the world economy recover. He emphasized that there is no other option, that cooperation is needed to save the world, and that the G20 must be a catalyst for an inclusive economic recovery.
lack of food
Since the Russo-Ukraine War, due to the blockade of the main black sea port, an important grain trade channel, most of Ukraine’s grain cannot be shipped out of its borders, which has caused a tightening of global food supply and a rise in prices.
In late July this year, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to transport Ukrainian grain under the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey. However, due to the escalation of the conflict, the agreement is facing the dilemma that it cannot be extended.
Under the tentative agreement, Ukraine's deadline to export grain via the Black Sea expires on November 19. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Monday hoped to extend the deadline, saying the arrangement was crucial for food security.
In addition to food, there are frequent problems in the fertilizer market. As one of the world's largest fertilizer suppliers, Russia's fertilizer exports have been greatly affected by sanctions imposed by other countries, and many shipping companies have refused to transport Russian goods for fear of being sanctioned.
Countries that rely on imported fertilizers, such as Brazil, are also major producers and suppliers of global food. According to the International Fertilizer Industry Federation (IFA), global fertilizer input in 2022 will be reduced by up to 7% compared with last year, with the decline in Asia and Africa being particularly pronounced.
More intuitively, according to IFA estimates, in 2022, the global corn, rice, and wheat production reduction rates will reach 1.4%, 1.5%, and 3.1% compared with last year.
